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People can tell you anything they like. Each person speaks in accordance with his knowledge and experience. But if you noticed, all my predictions on what would happen in the case of Nnamdi Kanu came true, including what I predicted would happen today in court. Now, this is the summary of what you should expect in the long run.
(1) They will not grant Nnamdi bail in the next four years, if the trial lasts that long.
(2) They will not transfer him from DSS facility to Kuje prison.
(3) The Government are still preparing additional charges to file against him. Those will be more weighty and more detailed than the last ones they filed.
(4) Eventually, diplomatic and political pressures will build up in favor of Nnamdi Kanu, especially if there are humanitarian factors such as deterioration of Nnamdi’s health in custody.
(5) Despite that, the court will convict Nnamdi and sentence him to life or death.
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(6) Then the Government of Nigeria will use Nnamdi Kanu’s freedom as a bargaining chip for political purpose. Nnamdi’s release will be traded off against some vital political interest of the Igbos. That will force the Igbos into the trap. They will be forced to make concessions in exchange for the release of Nnamdi, whose popularity will continue to grow among the Igbos.
Invariably, the Government of Nigeria will leverage the situation in the favor of the Northern political interest and at the expense of the Igbos. In effect, the Nnamdi and IPOB experiment will ultimately turn against the Igbos long term interest, but it will take years for this to manifest.
When the Biafran war ended, the Nigerian Government used it as an opportunity to blackmail the Igbos for years. The Igbos spent 50 years to regain some position of bargaining strength and trust in Nigeria, as seen in the appointment of an Igbo as the Chief of Army Staff. The Igbos made slow but meaningful progress, to a point where they could demand for the presidency as of right.
However, the ill-advised IPOB strategy will reverse the progress made by the Igbos. The ambivalent attitude of the Igbo elites towards IPOB is interpreted, rightly so, as tacit support for IPOB and actualization of Biafra. The North and the West will team up together to push the Igbos back and to blackmail them for many years to come over that. There was no strategic foresight in the evolution of IPOB and its methods and the silence or timidity of the Igbo elites.
