Update on the case of Nnamdi Kanu: The difference between a wish and a prediction — By Emeka Ugwuonye

Yesterday, I made yet another prediction in the case of Nnamdi Kanu. From the reactions of some people, I could tell that they did not understand the meaning of the word prediction. They assumed that it means the same as a wish. In other words, if I predict an outcome, they assume I wish for that outcome. It is, therefore, important to explain the difference between a wish and a prediction.

A wish is what you prefer. To wish for something to happen is to want that thing to happen. However, to predict that something will happen is to make your best intelligent guess or assessment about the likely outcome of an unfolding event. A wish is based on desire. But a prediction is based on calculation of factors that are all beyond one’s control. Wishes are not based on logical calculations. Indeed, wishes are often taken as desires that are not based on logical calculation, as something that is not logical or likely. That is why we say that if wishes were horses, beggars will ride. That is another way of saying that wishes are not based on reality. Predictions are the opposite of wishes. Predictions are logical and calculated guesstimates of outcomes. While we wish for the beautiful impossible, we sometimes predict an outcome that we hate. For instance, if I Knew I had cancer, I could predict that I would die from it. It doesn’t mean I wish to die. In fact, I wish to live, but I have to predict that I would die.

So, when I predicted that Nnamdi Kanu would be tried and found guilty and sentenced to death or life imprisonment, I was not wishing that to be the fate of Nnamdi Kanu. As a human being, I do NOT wish that anybody would convicted of a crime. I do NOT wish that Nnamdi Kanu should suffer the fate of conviction and sentencing for such grave offenses as he has been charged with. However, as an intelligent person well versed in the law, I can assess any legal situation and predict the likely outcome. From the history of criminal trials, including the trial of Jesus Christ, it is clear that a person who is disliked by the government or the power that be will likely be convicted even if he is otherwise innocent. What will lead to the outcome of the current trial of Nnamdi Kanu will be determined by factors outside the question of whether he actually did bad things or not. It will be determined by how the Nigerian Government feels about him. That is always what happens – if the government is so determined to find you guilt, it will find you guilty. If you don’t know that, then you are a beginner.

How did I come to the prediction that Nnamdi Kanu would not be granted bail or that he would not be released soon? I have been following the case of Nnamdi Kanu very meticulously from day one. If you remembered, on December 31, 2015, President Buhari had a Meet the Press media event, during which he granted press interview. At some point in that interview, the journalist asked the President about some people facing criminal trials in Nigeria. The President said that there were three people in detention that should never be granted bail. He named Col Dasuki, former National Security Adviser to President Jonathan, as one of the three. He also named El Zakzakki. And he named Nnamdi Kanu. I was one of those who went public to criticize the President for usurping the powers of the courts to determine who should be granted bail and who should not. (My reaction to President Buhari’s unusual conduct in that interview was the origin of Lauretta Onoshie’s hatred of me. It was also the reason I was detained overnight at the airport by the DSS when I entered Nigeria on January 16, 2016).

At the time of 2015, when President Buhari thought that Nnamdi Kanu should not be granted bail, Nnamdi Kanu and his IPOB were relatively of no serious threat to the Nigerian Government. Then IPOB had not been proscribed. Then, there was no ESN, etc. So, you can safely assume that the President’s feelings toward Nnamdi Kanu in 2021 must have gotten harder and more hostile than his feelings toward him in 2015, when he thought that Nnamdi Kanu should not be granted bail.

Look at the fate of the other two people the President said should not be granted bail. Dasuki was held in DSS detention for four years even after the court granted him bail. El Zakzakki is still in DSS detention even after the court discharged him. That is what happens to people that the President felt do not deserve bail. Now that Nnamdi Kanu is in the custody of Nigerian Government, do you believe that this Government will treat him more favorably than it treated Dasuki and El Zakzakki, whom together with Nnamdi Kanu were once declared unbailable?

Anyway, my predictions are based on logic, on facts, on analysis, not on my personal desires. I had to say that it takes an uneducated mind to think that a prediction is the same as a wish. I can read the handwriting on the wall. Nigerian Government will not release Nnamdi Kanu on bail unless there is a political deal that favors the Government. For the Government of Nigeria, Nnamdi Kanu and IPOB pose the gravest existential threat.

Whether Nnamdi Kanu and IPOB were strategic in the manner they went after their objective is a matter for another day. But you know what I think. All that is; what is happening today was well foreseeable and was predictable. I did warn that it could happen. Never start a fight unless you are well prepared for it. Otherwise, you are guaranteed to lose the fight, and destroy yourself. Today, all that Nnamdi Kanu wants is prayers. He wants his followers to pray without ceasing. What a dramatic difference in tone and message when compared with his earlier message to fight and destroy the Janjaweed Fulani Government. Today, the primary objective of IPOB members is to secure the release of their leader, not the actualization of Biafra. The actualization objective now has to wait until after the release of their leader. In other words, the leader of IPOB was captured by the enemy even before the war started. You can explain that as you like, but when the Supreme Commander is captured by the enemy forces, that is the end of the war. His army will surrender. The Supreme Commander cannot be captured and you expect the war to continue.

Finally, the court has adjourned till November 10 to hear arguments on the pending motions. The judge will adjourn again to give a ruling on those motions. One of the motions is challenging the jurisdiction of the court to try Nnamdi Kanu because of the fact of how he was brought into the country. That motion will fail for several reasons. Another motion is seeking for bail for Nnamdi Kanu. That motion will also fail. And finally, another motion is seeking to have Nnamdi Kanu transferred to Kuje Prison. Also, that motion will fail. The judge will give her ruling around 24th of November and all the above three motions will fail. That is my prediction.

It will take a different approach to get Nnamdi Kanu released from detention. It will take a different approach to turn the situation around. That approach has not yet started. I shall not speak about that approach yet because it will alert the Government, and thus become self-defeating.