Fitch’s damning, cantankerous report on ‘Tinubu The BAT’
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Even with their obvious gullibility and their exiguous perceptiveness manifested in their political choices and the extents they can go to defend barefaced folly, it is still surprising to me that I haven’t come across anyone of the colony of bats who is taken aback by the Fitch Solutions Country Risks and Industry Research.
Fitch found and reported that the former Lagos State governor, Bola Tinubu will likely win the election, but that his emergence as President has the potentials to worsen civil strife and violence across the country.
The fact that even Onanuga and other official spokespersons of the Tinubu Campaign have not deemed it necessary to disown that report goes to show the extent of desperation harboured by Mr. Tinubu as long as the 2023 elections is concerned.
For the Jagaban Borgu, it doesn’t matter if every single soul in Nigeria will die in order for him to become President.
This much was stated by one of his supporters in Borno, who allegedly declared that “if it means killing and burying people”, they would do it in order to ensure that Tinubu wins.
Tinubu has neither disowned this man who made that statement nor deemed it necessary to explain his stance on the very credible Fitch ratings.
Tinubu’s chances in the upcoming general elections have never been in doubt. Like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, Tinubu has a strong chance of winning. And if we have to base our analysis on Nigeria’s known and previous pattern of running elections, Tinubu is actually the candidate with the clearest chance of securing victory in that election.
Obidients like us are relying on a serious disruption in the political system to get victory for Peter Obi, and I am confident that we are very much on course to securing one political victory that will be truly Nigerian.
However, it would be foolhardy dismissing the possibility of a Tinubu victory. We must live with the fact that if we do not work hard enough, Tinubu can win this election and like Fitch predicted, plunge Nigeria into unprecedented crisis.
Fitch is not like every other rating firm or a mere pollster, the firm goes beyond merely predicting the outcome of an event to showing what such outcome will likely entail.
I also agree that other international media organisations that gave an outright victory to my preferred candidate did not take into cognizance, Nigeria’s peculiar political environment, where money, thuggery, corruption, manipulation, harassment and violence are key determinants of an election outcome.
They looked at it from the point of how things ought to be without understanding that in Nigeria things never really go the right way. Yes, in saner environments, Tinubu and Atiku shouldn’t be in the race in the first place, but we are in Nigeria.
Fitch did Tinubu’s candidacy more harm than the two previous organisations that predicted victory for Peter Obi.
That report is more of a warning to Nigerians to avoid Tinubu’s presidency like the plague it is than a mere prediction of victory for the APC. They also confirmed what we have always known about Tinubu as the most divisive of all the presidential candidates.
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The report reads in part: “Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians… A win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians.”
Fitch’s report is not conclusive, as it is expected that they will continue to update their reports until the election day in February 2023, but it is a foreboding of dangerous dimensions which Nigerians must take very seriously. It is the most helpful of all the surveys so far conducted on the 2023 presidential election by international media research and media outfits.
Among other things, Fitch’s report takes into account the reality of the prevailing Nigerian culture of complacence. The average Nigerian is not convinced by logic but by sentiments. These sentiments can be fear, religious, tribal or economic.
The average Nigerian understands that things are rough in the country and voting Tinubu would amount to rewarding incompetence and reenforcing failure, but some will still do so, because of such mundane considerations as receiving some pittance from Tinubu or securing their own political future.
It would be good to see that report translated into various local languages and distributed widely, so that Nigerians will better appreciate that a vote for Tinubu will mean heightened insecurity, instability across Nigeria and more losses in Nigerian economic fortunes.
Fitch has merely stated that a Tinubu presidency would mean more hunger, more bloodshed, more depreciation in the value of the Naira and more hardship across the country. It is left to us to decide if that’s what we want for our country.
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