Unbiased academic analysis of the Zelensky-Trump Negotiation

If you think that what played out between President Zelenskyy and President Trump were mere emotions and ego, you probably haven’t been part of a high level think tank that advises either a President of a nation or a CEO of a major organisation.

Firstly, no president attends any meeting unprepared. None. And when it comes to planning high level negotiations, they consult with their strategists, political scientists, advisers, lobbyists, internal and sometimes independent think tanks. During those pre-negotiation consultations, they adopt what is known as their Negotiation Strategies And Processes -NSAP. And part of every Negotiation Strategy includes a BATNA – Best Alternative To A Negotiated Agreement. They activate their BATNA when/if the initial negotiation fails.

From a Negotiation Analysis perspective of what happened at the Oval Office, it is obvious that both leaders adopted one or more of the following Negotiation Strategies:

1. Positional Bargaining: Trump and Zelenskyy adopted firm stances without showing flexibility.

President Trump emphasized Ukraine’s need to make concessions to Russia. Trump insisted that failing to do so will lead to escalating the conflict to a global scale. He accused Zelenskyy of “gambling with World War III” by not engaging in negotiations with Russia. Using the same positional bargaining technique, President Zelenskyy stood firm against negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin, citing past Russian aggressions and war atrocities as reasons for his reluctance.

Diplomatic Negotiation is different from Business Negotiations because in International Relations, you are refunded in the same coin you paid with. You get what you give. If you remember in 2012, South Africa deported Nigerians because of Yellow Fever vaccination card issues. President Jonathan retaliated and sent back an entire plane from South Africa. The BATNA activated by South Africa was apology. The government of South Africa apologised and both countries smoked the Peace Pipe. Does it make sense that South Africa should apologise for protecting their country from unvaccinated foreigners? No. Many people were angry that South Africa apologised but that’s the principle of International Relations. The apology doesn’t mean that South Africa now welcomes foreigners from Nigeria who do not possess Yellow Fever Vaccine Cards. An apology in international relations can be likened to the apology your ex girlfriend or boyfriend offered when you caught them cheating – they are not sorry for what happened, they are sorry they got caught.

Zelenskyy or Trump wouldn’t have taken a flexible approach when it was obvious that both leaders were applying positional bargaining in the negotiation. I expect an apology from one of them – as their BATNA. Oh, you think the deal is dead?

2. Public Negotiation Technique:
Recently, one of the closest people to me was invited by the police in an African country. We knew that in a controlled environment, the petition leading to his invitation shouldn’t have been entertained by the Police. In the country where I live, the police would simply tell the petitioner not to waste tax payers money in such baseless case. So we went public before honouring the invitation. And justice was done.

The Public is a powerful Negotiation Tool. That’s why Public figures who control public opinions are feared. Trump knows this. Zelenskyy knows this. So the host country, the USA adopted the Public Negotiation Technique with Ukraine having studied Zelenskyy’s romance with the party that’s now in opposition. Great strategy for America – but not for Ukraine.

The events that unfolded before the camera saw both leaders attempting to leverage public opinion to strengthen their positions. So you and me talking about this is part of the strategy. They wanted to give you and I something to talk about before they activate the right BATNA.

Notice that Zelenskyy addressed his concerns openly, aiming to garner international support and highlight Ukraine’s plight. You think Zelenskyy was talking to Trump and Vance, No. He was talking to the world. Trump, on the other hand, used the platform to assert his expectations of gratitude and compliance from Ukraine, intelligently but subtly showing his “America First” policy stance. The MAGA crowd are proud of Trump just as the Pro-Zelenskyy crowd are cheering him. The neutrals are mostly intellectuals and academic analysts like me who are either trying to impress our PhD supervisors on LinkedIn or trying to make Executive sense as deal makers ourselves.

3. Emotional Appeals and Power Dynamics:

Once negotiating in front of cameras, emotions are vital tools in the hands of the negotiators.

That’s why my opening statement reads “If you think that what played out between President Zelenskyy and President Trump were mere emotions and ego, you probably haven’t been part of a high level think tank that advises either a President of a nation or a CEO of a major organisation.”

You and I are the ones whose emotions were targeted. Zelenskyy and Trump probably went back to their teams with smiles while you and I are up in arms.
When you use emotions as a tool, you are pre-trained to cry when you need to, show anger even if you are not angry or smile even if you are angry. These are emotional preparations negotiators go through.

The interaction in the Oval Office was charged with what looked like emotional exchanges, with Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance criticizing Zelenskyy for perceived ingratitude towards U.S. support. This approach was actually aimed at asserting dominance and pressure Ukraine into aligning with U.S. expectations. It was a super smart approach. But Zelenskyy’s steadfastness in seeking substantial security guarantees, despite the aggressive rhetoric, was strategically important to demonstrate his commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and security needs. He needed to boost the morale of his frontline soldiers at the war front. If he had taken a weaker stance, two things could have happened: either his soldiers become demoralised and surrender or he would face rebellion upon arrival from the Washington DC.

I have taken time to write this without taking sides with either Trump or Zelenskyy. I encourage you to focus more on sharpening your own negotiating skills from what played out yesterday. Do not criticise – analyse.

For those who would question the authority of my analysis, well, for 6 years now, I’ve been and still a member of an independent think tank which has consulted multiple East African Governments including Uganda and also consulted Corporate executives. With an Executive MBA in business strategy, it’s obvious that I am a passionate student of Leadership, Negotiations and Strategies.

Please keep comments professional, academic and neutral.

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